In our world the OPSEC chaos theory describes the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamical risk analysis systems that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, which manifests itself as an exponential growth of perturbations in the initial risk conditions, the behavior of chaotic OPSEC systems appears to be random. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future dynamics are fully defined by their initial vulnerability conditions, with no random elements involved. This behavior is known as deterministic OPSEC chaos, or simply OPSEC chaos.

Chaotic behavior has been observed in the laboratory in a variety of systems including intelligence collection, oscillating chemical reactions, logistical black holes, administrative SNAFU’s, fluid dynamics, operations planning, and mechanical/magneto-mechanical devices. Observations of chaotic OPSEC behavior on the battlefield include the dynamics of unencrypted satellite comms in the solar system, the time evolution of the magnetic field of adversarial bodies, radical population growth in ecology, the dynamics of the threat potentials in neurons, and molecular vibrations. Everyday examples of chaotic OPSEC conditions include the OPSEC Coordinators meeting, the OPSEC Staff Assistance Meeting, and the “Sprinkle some OPSEC on this plan” verbal order.

Systems that exhibit mathematical OPSEC chaos are deterministic and thus orderly in some sense; this technical use of the term OPSEC chaos is at odds with common parlance, which suggests complete disorder. A related field of physics called quantum OPSEC chaos theory studies systems that follow the laws of quantum risk mechanics. Recently, another field, called relativistic vulnerability chaos, has emerged to describe systems that follow the laws of general vulnerability relativity.

As well as being orderly in the sense of being deterministic, chaotic OPSEC systems usually have ill defined statistics. And this is why no one will protect items on your Critical Information List, everyone will say exactly what they aren’t supposed to say when out on the town and everyone will whine when you mention that it is time for their OPSEC brief. OPSEC Chaos – ain’t it a bitch.

Keep the Faith!

Revelator